Bilguun: Drop in copper price may affect other commodities
1 долоо хоног, 2 өдөр өмнө
The current business environment of Mongolia has been declining as the spread of the coronavirus impacts the global economy in the last few months. Across nearly every industry, multinational companies are confronting the stark reality that business will not go on as usual. Economist and CEO of MIBG Bilguun Ankhbayar expressed his opinion on the situation in Mongolia.
-Since the COVID-19 outbreak has been threatening economies around the world, some of the differences have been seen in the stock market. For example, Mazaalai bond yield rose dramatically to 12 percent and Khuraldai bond to 13 percent as well. What is your verdict on it?
-Not only international investors but also users have experienced mental shock. It leads people to act strangely. Everyone individuals including the investors have been seeking zero-risk options since the virus became worse. Following the situation, many changes have been made in the markets.
-Most of the econismts seem to expect Mongolia to issue bonds again in the near future as the Government bonds are due soon. But the bond yields have increased. Do you think it will be stabilized at its previous rate?
-As far as I can see, the bond yields may decrease but not the same as it was before. Mongolia is likely to attract additional finance by issuing bonds.
-Mining sector, one of Mongolia’s main sources of economic growth, has been halted for a couple of months. Even though the coal export to China resumed recently, is it still possible to cover its losses in short term?
-It is hard, especially in the short term. The borders to China had been closed since the early January. In other words, it is merely impossible to cover almost two months of coal exports revenue. However, it is not the biggest problem for Mongolia than the potential commodity price decline. Recent drop in copper price may affect other commodities such as coking coal. Global economies are all connected. Producers and exporters in China are most likely to see decline, increasing the risk of Mongolia’s mineral products price to slip in the long term.
-Does the Single Window policy necessary during the economic hardship?
-Ofcourse, it will be effective to provide public service in this situation. As the investors have seen, Mongolians have the potential to unite when the crisis occur and the Government can provide reliable information, showing solidarity and cooperation.
-Central banks around the world have taken measures to manage the economic crisis, such as cutting the policy interest rate or spuring specific sectors. Most of them combined both fiscal and monetary policy. How accurate is Mongolia’s fiscal policy at the time? What should we do in the upcoming year?
-Well, we need to expand the budget to invest it on the long term projects, namely mining sector. It will benefit Mongolia in the long term as well as affecting other sectors. Focusing on the main revenue source is important.