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http://zgm.mn/post/2445/

New conditions in the Korean peninsula and possible participation of Mongoliа Part-II

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http://zgm.mn/post/2445/


COMPETITION OF CONTROL OVER PACIFIC OCEAN

The 7th marine in Hawaii and military force in Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea allow the United States to oversee the Pacific Ocean. This control has achieved in maintaining peace and regulating regional security since World War II. The war between Korea and Vietnam prevented the communism from spread further. America’s approach to North Korea after the end of the Cold War was not consistent. The North began implementing the nuclear program and announced that it was leaving the International Atomic Energy Agency when it came for investigation. Later on, the former President of the U.S Jimmy Carter visited Pyongyang, where he met with the old dictator. Clinton’s administration believed that they would succeed in negotiating with North Korea for eight years.

But the emergence of a new rival in the Pacific was China. For that reason, Americans are keen to overthrow the North Korean regime. The U.S policy towards North Korea before the powerful new century China, which protects the North regime from collapse, has been a form of criticism and threats, but now it has become crucial. Even though the North has continental ballistic missiles, it does not have the technical potential to threaten the United States. That is just theoretically possible, but in practice, the pressure on China is through the pressure on North. The North declared that they would not negotiate with the South and Japan for many years and called them as American puppets. Thus, when negotiating, they would only agree with the American President. The Americans have never considered it seriously. Trump, however, stirred up the young leader and put a maximum sanction on the country, leading North Korea to negotiate.

NORTH KOREA’S ISSUE CANNOT BE SOLVED WITHOUT CHINA

It is impossible to resolve the Korean peninsula issue without China. During the Korean War, China helped North Korea, but the North did not argue with the Russians during the Sino-Soviet conflict. During the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, China persuaded the North to make similar reforms, but they did not accept it. However, North Korea acted like they were introducing the experience of China, made a scandalous visit, and even declared a free trade zone. The leaders of North perceived it as a threat to the regime and started to use the method of “loosening-tightening” in the economy. For example, a certain group of people should be given the right to trade abroad, but they will be repressed and blamed for it afterward.

North Korea is like Frankenstein to China. There are around 300,000 refugees currently living in NorthEast China illegally. China is the only country that borders with North Korea by land, excluding the border with Russia, which is less than 20 km and closed range of 38 km. If North Korea’s regime collapses, China will be the first victim of the North’s millions of refugees. The Chinese were cautious about this, especially before the Beijing Olympics. If the North's regime falls, control over refugees and political accountability will be imposed on China. There were tens of thousands of soldiers on the border to protect them from refugees. However, China realized that the real danger was inevitable.

Both Russia and China have used North Korea for their geopolitical game as their “dog” against the United States and Japan. This is particularly evident in the UN conventions. They did not give North Korea to the West, but they did not destroy the regime, supporting them and using their country as a separate barrier from the world. However, China decided to tackle the obvious operations of the North and joined the UN sanction on the nuclear program. As a result, trade between China and North Korea has dropped dramatically and has reached its lowest level since its establishment.

As of today, South Korea’s economy is almost entirely dependent on China. Also, the South is a huge trading partner for China. For this and other reasons, the North made China as a subject to trigger. As North Korea does not decide how to interact with China, China cannot reach a solution to the regime. On the one hand, it is dangerous. The Chinese side wants to change the regime of the North with a softer one. If North cannot control the country, it may end up as an example of the U.S operations in Iraq.

SIX DIFFERENT INTERESTS OF SIX COUNTRIES

Russia has almost forgotten North Korea since the end of the Cold War. The most inactive side of the six-side talk was Russia. As a result of the Crimean Experiment, Putin, who turned the world against him, was interested in cooperating with the North.

The issue of hostage citizens is Japan's biggest show in North Korea. In fact, the hostages predicted  to be at least 20-100. They were activists of the Japanese terrorist organization “red army” who went to North Korea by persuasion and for their own. When Abe's government came out, the Judicial Department has renamed as “Ministry of Justice and Guaranty Affairs”. In contrast, South Korea lost its citizenship to its northern brother North Korea.

• The war between Korea and Vietnam prevented the communism from spread around.

• If North Korea’s regime collapses, China will be the first victim of the North’s millions of refugees. 

• The wish to overthrow the North Korean regime and keep peace at the Korean peninsula has become increasingly faded.

Japan was neglected when North Korea made direct negotiations with the United States. In the region, China suddenly became a big player and it may control the world in the future. Japan is concerned about it. In fact, even North Korea’s “toy” nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles that drown in the ocean can not show any sign of harm to Japan. The Japanese self-defense force has the ability to defend against an attack of this level. If North Korea’s nuclear bombs get accepted internationally, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will have the potential to have the first nuclear power plants as well. They can make it easy with the current technology. The most dangerous part of North Korea’s nuclear program is not the intention of exploding it but the expansion of the nuclear power scale around the world. However, if the negotiation with the North ends successfully, they will be willing to take revenge from Japan. The cost of their war might cost tens of billions of dollars. The future survival of the North’s regime is to intervene directly with the United States to end the sanction  to take on a strategy to save a great deal of money from Japan. But my point of view might be wrong.

BREAKING THE STATUS QUO MAY BRING DANGER

The most famous fairytale of South Korea’s government, which is about the union of two Koreas, has been told since the end of the Cold War. It is possible to realize in at least fifty years and when politicians have no longer have to do with it. If they actually do decide on the merge, it will require USD 3-4 billion, which will exceed the national production of South Korea. After the Cold War, they could have understood the dreams of the early 1990s, which reminded them of an example of the unity of Germany. Now it seems like there is a different interest behind the “childish” talk.

In fact, South Korea is the country that suffers the most in the world because of its northern neighbor. The North attacked in the 1950s, starting the three-year war, installing an eternal fear. What if the nuclear bomb exploded on its borders if the North decided to destroy everyone with its destructive regime?

Although the North has many nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, their own technological capabilities cannot threaten the far U.S and near Japan’s self-defense. The real collateral pledged by the North is South Korea, especially Seoul. Seoul, one of the largest cities in the world today, became one of the largest centers of technological, cultural, economic, and civilization in the world. If this central city becomes a victim of a nuclear war, or even a regular weapon, the impact will be harmful to the whole world.

The collapse of the North regime will be out of control, which is a real disaster for South Korea. As a result of the unrestricted security and the more self-sustaining situation of the world, the north-south side of responsibility will be shouldered solely by its southern neighbor. What can the Southern people do when millions of unarmed people pass through the 38th latitudes? After the Cold War, the Soviet Union's Security Agency was transformed into Russian Mafia, and Middle East refugees, which became an obstacle to the United States, changed the behavior towards Eastern Europe. It will take a long time to socialize for the North people who lived in such a harsh regime in three generations and who have been isolated from human society. If you have a rich brother, it is easier to rob them. Anyone from the six-sided talks can protect themselves from the chaos of the Korean peninsula, except South Korea. Therefore, it is a troubling situation, but South Korea has nothing to do with North Korea's regime itself, which is a little more harmful to the South if it remains as it used to be.

The wish to overthrow the North Korean regime and to keep peace in the Korean peninsula has become faded. Optimistic opinion about the world future after the Cold War is getting farther away. The world is becoming more and more fragile than it was during the Cold War, and it is now approaching a new division. There is no idea of the ideology that expressed the meaning of the split of the Cold War, but it pushes every country into selfishness in today’s world of isolation. For that reason, other countries started to think that it is better for North Korea’s regime to exist as it is less harmful.

Trump’s efforts to bare North Korea alone and President Moon Jae-in’s dream to have respectful relations with the North and connecting to the land is too early for today. North Korea’s regime will not allow this to happen. Even if they do, a more dangerous situation than the status quo will cover South Korea.

However, the problem may be further evolved by the alternative scenario that no one could ever imagine. The North Koreans have had plenty of experience in the dispute between the rival parties, and they played well during the Sino-Soviet conflict. Americans who are familiar with this have the option to allow North Korean nuclear programs or to stop. According to the Mississippi act at the Sino-Soviet conflict, the U.S has a great experience on that matter too. If the U.S-North partnership establishes, it will be a very effective pressure on China. If this happens, it is hard to predict the outcome. Anyway, the only thing that is strongly held by the North's collateral is Seoul. It is clear that this version is not profitable for South Korea.

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Miners start the year with revenue growth

Oyu Tolgoi spent USD 296.4 million on underground development in the first quarter

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Mining projects that have a major impact on Mongolia’s economy saw splendid expansion in the first  quarter. The Top 100 Mongolian firms included Erdenet Mining Corporation (EMC), Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi (ETT) and Oyu Tolgoi (OT). These companies paid a total of MNT 2.1 trillion to the state budget last year.

Copper

Oyu Tolgoi, one of the main mining projects in Mongolia, spent USD 296.4 million on underground development in the first quarter of this year. The second shaft is still ongoing and it is expected to end in October.

Xanadu Mines, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange announced the result of additional exploration at Kharmagtai deposit. In the first quarter of this year, the capital balance of the company reached AUD 3.1 million, while post-tax losses nearly halved from the same period last year. The share price of the company reached AUD 0.08 at the Australian Stock Exchange.

Gold

Erdene Resource Development Corp. (ERD), Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) listed firm, has conducted drilling at the Khundii field and expanded the mineralization of the Bayan Khundii deposit. The company explained its plans in a report to support the feasibility study of the project. “The exploration of the project on the Midfield area found 5.9 grams of gold per tonne at a depth of 112 meters per. This affirms the high mineralization in the main part of the Bayan Khundii deposit,” said the CEO of the company Peter Akerley. The share prices of ERD at the TSX reached CAD 0.19.

Coal

SouthGobi Resources, operating at Ovoot Tolgoi mines increased its coal sales by over 80 percent to 1.1 million tons in the first quarter of the year. The average selling price of the company has decreased from USD 43 in 2018 to USD 34.9. The net profits have doubled from the previous year to USD 13.4 by reducing the cost.




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Tavan Tolgoi JSC: Coal sales totaled 1.8 million tons in 2018

The company's share price fell 36 percent to MNT 6,400 at MSE in a year

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Tavan Tolgoi JSC: Coal sales totaled 1.8 million tons in 2018 Tavan Tolgoi (TT) JSC was planning to sell 5 million tons of coal in 2018, but the amount totaled only 1.8 million tons, earning MNT 226.4 billion in sales revenue. Net profit was MNT 52.8 billion, according to its financial statement.

The company's share price fell 36 percent to MNT 6,400 at the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) over the last year. The decline is mainly due to the Professional Inspection Agency's activity that caused temporary delay in share sales for over two months in connection with the mining operation of the company.

In addition, the companies that are operating at the residual deposits of Tavan Tolgoi have been facing a major problem in the customs sector last year. The Chinese side delayed the import at the Gantsmod port because of the introduction of smart systems, which resulted in the 21-day suspension of the Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait road to reduce the overload at the road.

The government is working to improve the capacity of the border checkpoint

Tavan Tolgoi JSC reported in its financial statements that the road was closed for 18 days due to weather conditions. However, Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC, which operates at the same deposit with TT exported 13 million tons of coal in 2018, while Energy Resources LLC's coal production reached 10.9 million tons.

The government is working to improve the capacity of the border checkpoint. Umnugovi province Governor's Office reported that the Gashuunsukhait is waiting for a transaction of CNY 140 million or MNT 50 billion in part of the Chinese grant.



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Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan railway to commence this week

MNT 750 billion will be spent on the project

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The Government is planning to inaugurate the construction of 416.6 km railway from Tavantolgoi to Zuunbayan on May 24. The Minister of Road and Transportation Enkh-Amgalan Byambasuren announced that soldiers will help finish the task. Also, it is estimated that MNT 750 billion will be spent on the project.

The domestic transport revenue of the Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait railway is about USD 8, while the transport revenue of the Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan railway will be USD 20 (per what? Add measure). The Tavantolgoi-Zuunbayan railway line is scheduled to be completed in 2020 starting from May. A total of 3,647 people will work on the construction of the tunnel and dam, while 1,144 people will participate in building the other development works.

There are seven tasks to build a railway:

● Pre-construction work ● Laying bottom ballast 

● Top ballast

● Water supply 

● Electricity

● Connection 

● Building

“The first task, pre-construction activities will be undertaken by the Mongolian Armed Forces (MAF). Ulaanbaatar Railway will be responsible for the construction of the top ballast, the others will be done by the chosen domestic companies, and 36,000-meter cubic soil work will have completed. MAF and subcontractors will do the soil work,” the Deputy Minister of Road and Transportation.

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Erdenet Methane LLC signs Methane Investment Agreement

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Erdenes Methane LLC and Jade Methane LLC of Australia established Methane gas investment agreement to set reserves of coal seams of coal at Tavantolgoi deposit. Executive Director of Erdenes Methane LLC and Executive Director of Jade Methane LLC have signed the contract on May 17, 2019.

CEO of Jade Methane Joseph Burke said “Mongolia is close to the market of key customers in methane gas. It is seen as a major competitive advantage since the natural gas reserves are relatively close to 600km from Ulaanbaatar. China receives natural gas from other countries through its northern port. Instead of that, if they export natural gas and methane gas from Mongolia, China will have the opportunity to deliver at least cost to its core customers.”

The Board of Directors of Erdenes Mongol LLC made a decision to raise funds from the international market by exchanging exploration and feasibility studies for the Coal Seam methane gas project by foreign investors last year. According to this, Erdenes Methane announced an open tender and Australia's Jade Methane was chosen as the foreign investor to cooperate on the project.