New conditions in the Korean peninsula and possible participation of Mongoliа Part-II
2 долоо хоног өмнө
COMPETITION OF CONTROL OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
The 7th marine in Hawaii and military force in Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea allow the United States to oversee the Pacific Ocean. This control has achieved in maintaining peace and regulating regional security since World War II. The war between Korea and Vietnam prevented the communism from spread further. America’s approach to North Korea after the end of the Cold War was not consistent. The North began implementing the nuclear program and announced that it was leaving the International Atomic Energy Agency when it came for investigation. Later on, the former President of the U.S Jimmy Carter visited Pyongyang, where he met with the old dictator. Clinton’s administration believed that they would succeed in negotiating with North Korea for eight years.
But the emergence of a new rival in the Pacific was China. For that reason, Americans are keen to overthrow the North Korean regime. The U.S policy towards North Korea before the powerful new century China, which protects the North regime from collapse, has been a form of criticism and threats, but now it has become crucial. Even though the North has continental ballistic missiles, it does not have the technical potential to threaten the United States. That is just theoretically possible, but in practice, the pressure on China is through the pressure on North. The North declared that they would not negotiate with the South and Japan for many years and called them as American puppets. Thus, when negotiating, they would only agree with the American President. The Americans have never considered it seriously. Trump, however, stirred up the young leader and put a maximum sanction on the country, leading North Korea to negotiate.
NORTH KOREA’S ISSUE CANNOT BE SOLVED WITHOUT CHINA
It is impossible to resolve the Korean peninsula issue without China. During the Korean War, China helped North Korea, but the North did not argue with the Russians during the Sino-Soviet conflict. During the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, China persuaded the North to make similar reforms, but they did not accept it. However, North Korea acted like they were introducing the experience of China, made a scandalous visit, and even declared a free trade zone. The leaders of North perceived it as a threat to the regime and started to use the method of “loosening-tightening” in the economy. For example, a certain group of people should be given the right to trade abroad, but they will be repressed and blamed for it afterward.
North Korea is like Frankenstein to China. There are around 300,000 refugees currently living in NorthEast China illegally. China is the only country that borders with North Korea by land, excluding the border with Russia, which is less than 20 km and closed range of 38 km. If North Korea’s regime collapses, China will be the first victim of the North’s millions of refugees. The Chinese were cautious about this, especially before the Beijing Olympics. If the North's regime falls, control over refugees and political accountability will be imposed on China. There were tens of thousands of soldiers on the border to protect them from refugees. However, China realized that the real danger was inevitable.
Both Russia and China have used North Korea for their geopolitical game as their “dog” against the United States and Japan. This is particularly evident in the UN conventions. They did not give North Korea to the West, but they did not destroy the regime, supporting them and using their country as a separate barrier from the world. However, China decided to tackle the obvious operations of the North and joined the UN sanction on the nuclear program. As a result, trade between China and North Korea has dropped dramatically and has reached its lowest level since its establishment.
As of today, South Korea’s economy is almost entirely dependent on China. Also, the South is a huge trading partner for China. For this and other reasons, the North made China as a subject to trigger. As North Korea does not decide how to interact with China, China cannot reach a solution to the regime. On the one hand, it is dangerous. The Chinese side wants to change the regime of the North with a softer one. If North cannot control the country, it may end up as an example of the U.S operations in Iraq.
SIX DIFFERENT INTERESTS OF SIX COUNTRIES
Russia has almost forgotten North Korea since the end of the Cold War. The most inactive side of the six-side talk was Russia. As a result of the Crimean Experiment, Putin, who turned the world against him, was interested in cooperating with the North.
The issue of hostage citizens is Japan's biggest show in North Korea. In fact, the hostages predicted to be at least 20-100. They were activists of the Japanese terrorist organization “red army” who went to North Korea by persuasion and for their own. When Abe's government came out, the Judicial Department has renamed as “Ministry of Justice and Guaranty Affairs”. In contrast, South Korea lost its citizenship to its northern brother North Korea.
• The war between Korea and Vietnam prevented the communism from spread around.
• If North Korea’s regime collapses, China will be the first victim of the North’s millions of refugees.
• The wish to overthrow the North Korean regime and keep peace at the Korean peninsula has become increasingly faded.
Japan was neglected when North Korea made direct negotiations with the United States. In the region, China suddenly became a big player and it may control the world in the future. Japan is concerned about it. In fact, even North Korea’s “toy” nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles that drown in the ocean can not show any sign of harm to Japan. The Japanese self-defense force has the ability to defend against an attack of this level. If North Korea’s nuclear bombs get accepted internationally, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will have the potential to have the first nuclear power plants as well. They can make it easy with the current technology. The most dangerous part of North Korea’s nuclear program is not the intention of exploding it but the expansion of the nuclear power scale around the world. However, if the negotiation with the North ends successfully, they will be willing to take revenge from Japan. The cost of their war might cost tens of billions of dollars. The future survival of the North’s regime is to intervene directly with the United States to end the sanction to take on a strategy to save a great deal of money from Japan. But my point of view might be wrong.
BREAKING THE STATUS QUO MAY BRING DANGER
The most famous fairytale of South Korea’s government, which is about the union of two Koreas, has been told since the end of the Cold War. It is possible to realize in at least fifty years and when politicians have no longer have to do with it. If they actually do decide on the merge, it will require USD 3-4 billion, which will exceed the national production of South Korea. After the Cold War, they could have understood the dreams of the early 1990s, which reminded them of an example of the unity of Germany. Now it seems like there is a different interest behind the “childish” talk.
In fact, South Korea is the country that suffers the most in the world because of its northern neighbor. The North attacked in the 1950s, starting the three-year war, installing an eternal fear. What if the nuclear bomb exploded on its borders if the North decided to destroy everyone with its destructive regime?
Although the North has many nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, their own technological capabilities cannot threaten the far U.S and near Japan’s self-defense. The real collateral pledged by the North is South Korea, especially Seoul. Seoul, one of the largest cities in the world today, became one of the largest centers of technological, cultural, economic, and civilization in the world. If this central city becomes a victim of a nuclear war, or even a regular weapon, the impact will be harmful to the whole world.
The collapse of the North regime will be out of control, which is a real disaster for South Korea. As a result of the unrestricted security and the more self-sustaining situation of the world, the north-south side of responsibility will be shouldered solely by its southern neighbor. What can the Southern people do when millions of unarmed people pass through the 38th latitudes? After the Cold War, the Soviet Union's Security Agency was transformed into Russian Mafia, and Middle East refugees, which became an obstacle to the United States, changed the behavior towards Eastern Europe. It will take a long time to socialize for the North people who lived in such a harsh regime in three generations and who have been isolated from human society. If you have a rich brother, it is easier to rob them. Anyone from the six-sided talks can protect themselves from the chaos of the Korean peninsula, except South Korea. Therefore, it is a troubling situation, but South Korea has nothing to do with North Korea's regime itself, which is a little more harmful to the South if it remains as it used to be.
The wish to overthrow the North Korean regime and to keep peace in the Korean peninsula has become faded. Optimistic opinion about the world future after the Cold War is getting farther away. The world is becoming more and more fragile than it was during the Cold War, and it is now approaching a new division. There is no idea of the ideology that expressed the meaning of the split of the Cold War, but it pushes every country into selfishness in today’s world of isolation. For that reason, other countries started to think that it is better for North Korea’s regime to exist as it is less harmful.
Trump’s efforts to bare North Korea alone and President Moon Jae-in’s dream to have respectful relations with the North and connecting to the land is too early for today. North Korea’s regime will not allow this to happen. Even if they do, a more dangerous situation than the status quo will cover South Korea.
However, the problem may be further evolved by the alternative scenario that no one could ever imagine. The North Koreans have had plenty of experience in the dispute between the rival parties, and they played well during the Sino-Soviet conflict. Americans who are familiar with this have the option to allow North Korean nuclear programs or to stop. According to the Mississippi act at the Sino-Soviet conflict, the U.S has a great experience on that matter too. If the U.S-North partnership establishes, it will be a very effective pressure on China. If this happens, it is hard to predict the outcome. Anyway, the only thing that is strongly held by the North's collateral is Seoul. It is clear that this version is not profitable for South Korea.