New conditions in the korean peninsula and possible participation of mongolia
Traditional and historical relations with the North may create opportunity for Mongolia
2 долоо хоног, 1 өдөр өмнө
The actual collateral pledged by the North is South Korea, especially Seoul. Seoul is one of the largest technological, cultural, economic, and civilization centers in the world. If this city becomes a victim to a nuclear war, or even a regular weapon, the impact will be harmful to the whole world.
NEW NORTHERN POLICY
The New Northern Policy, which was proposed by President Moon Jae-in, is related to the emergence of new relations with North Korea. In short, South Korea is aiming to intensify economic cooperation with Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia, China, and North Korea. Furthermore, the policy is about improving relations with North Korea and to tackle the tensions of the Korean peninsula based on mutual partnerships and cooperation. South Korea, which is connected to the world via water and airways, could open a new gateway to Eurasia if they improve its relationship with North Korea.
Trade with Russia accounts for 1.5 percent of South Korea's foreign trade. Expanding this number and connecting with landlocked countries such as Uzbekistan by railway are also the goals of the new policy. The plan also includes to elevate ties with Russia and create nine bridges between the two countries. It involves nine sectors: natural gas, railways, energy, seaports, Arctic route, shipbuilding, agriculture, marine products, and new jobs.
INVOLVEMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR MONGOLIA
Mongolia has huge energy reserves. The Central Asian watershed is located in the northern part of Mongolia. The Mongolian Gobi is the world's biggest wind power source and the country has 300 sunny days in a year. Renewable energy technology is advancing rapidly in recent years. The wind turbine is inconvenient for people with high concentrations of land, where there are plenty of wind turbines in the vast desert of Mongolia. If we use all of this, Mongolia can become a huge exporter of energy in the near future.
During the Yuan Dynasty, Mongolia and Korea had a close relationship. Historically, much of the support came from the Koreans when few Mongolians were ruling over a large population. Later during the Korean War, of course, Mongolia was on the communist side, standing up for Korea, aiding food and horses, and took care of the children who were suffering from the war. In the absence of relationship with South Korea, however, in 1989, Mongolia was the second country to accept South Korea after all of the Communist countries. Interestingly, the second country that accepted North Korea in 1948 was also Mongolia.
While we have a strong economic, social and cultural relationship with South Korea, we have continued to maintain our traditional and historical relations with North Korea. Since 1996, Mongolia has been providing food aid to the North. For more than 20 years, North Koreans have been working in Mongolia at construction sites. The number of workers has dropped dramatically due to the UN ban but there are about 500 workers remain working in Mongolia. The relations between our two countries are in good shape. Since 2000, every Mongolian President visited North Korea, and several prime ministers have visited the country.
• South Korea is aiming to intensify economic cooperation with Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia, China, and North Korea.
• The Mongolian Gobi is the world's largest wind power source, whereas it has 300 sunny days in a year.
• Since the six-party talks ended up without any results, policies of the powerful powers to North Korea have changed over the past decade.
Koreans and Mongolians have sympathy for each other. About 100,000 people in Mongolia know the Korean language to some degree, which is a very high number compared to the population. Korean is the third language for Mongolians. In the meantime, the people who know Russian language may decrease and the Korean language could rapidly become a second language after the English language. Korean culture has been very popular in Mongolia over the past three decades.
Mongolia has expressed its support for the new optimistic (perhaps too optimistic) Northern Policy. Northeast Asia has the potential to become the most developed region in the near future. There is the second largest economy in the world, China, the third biggest economy, Japan and tenth, South Korea, and then there are eastern Siberia and the Far East. Becoming a part of such huge integration is Mongolia's aspiration. However, North East Asia is the largest military center in the world. Without this threat, hundreds of millions of people in the region would live safely and peacefully.
THE LAST COUNTRY WITHOUT COCA-COLA
The New Northern Policy is not just a matter for South Korea. The six-party talks, which held intermittently since 2003 and attended by China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States for the purpose of dismantling North Korea's nuclear program. The six countries' different interests have not changed today. South Korea has been geographically pure island-nation since the Korean war, and it is hard to believe that the situation will soon be resolved with the mainland. I have been studying the Korean Peninsula since 1996, and I have visited 26 times to North Korea.
By 1990, the communist system collapsed and the cold war that lasted for almost fifty years has ended. The communist-style regimes in Ethiopia, Angola, South Sudan, Nicaragua, Congo, Salvador, and Cambodia, which lived through only violent conflicts, have ended immediately. The regime in China and Vietnam, though, did not officially reject the communist bureaucracy, but the economy was liberalized and the ideology of a slow and gradual setback was selected. However, the last pillar of the stalemate is that the two countries, namely North Korea and Cuba, have stayed with the communist dictatorship. The world was waiting for the two regimes to fall. Surprisingly, the regimes remained for 30 years, keeping their old-fashioned economy and ideology. Up until now, there were only two countries in the world without coca-cola.
North Korea went through the hard times barely providing their citizens with food and over three million people died out of starvation. North Korean leader Kim decided to stay with the communist regime until the end. North Korea has chosen a way of preserving its cruel regime among its historical conditions, the external environment, and the geopolitical policies of powerful countries. When the communist regimes fell and condemned, its leaders have to follow the example of severe punishments. North Korea did not want that. Despite the fact that attempts have been made to slowly transit to the free market by the economic reforms, it seems that the poor people who lived in such a hard condition would have become a danger for the regime. The country that faced such paradox has already chosen a way to play a policy that increased cruelness.
UN sanction on North drastically reduced number of Korean workers in Mongolia
The Nuclear Power Project was the main tool for this conflict. The collapse of the USSR and Russia's upheaval in the late nineteenth century gave a great opportunity to the north in nuclear technology. Afterward, the North improved the technology with the help of Iran and Pakistan. The issue began with a plan to build a nuclear power plant, and it was an open-ended nuclear war. Therefore, North Koreans were invited to the negotiating table and held a six-round of six-sided talks in 2003-2007. Nuclear experiments, ballistic missiles, and six-sided talks became the main points of retention in North Korea, all the while maintaining external supports and exerting control over the world.
Since the six-party talks ended up without any result, policies of the powerful powers to North Korea have changed over the past decade and have made substantial changes to world politics. The stakeholders in the six-party negotiations found new innovative policies on using North Korea to their benefits. North Korea has also moved into a new tactical strategy for how to use this innovative opportunity.
The nuclear test and missile rocket in North Korea led to the joint sanction of the five members in the UN Security Council. The sanction had a very strong impact. North Korea’s economy, which has been banned for export for the first time in the past 30 years, was under big pressure in terms of economy. There have been numerous sanctions on North Korea but never had such a common resistance. Even though this sector-specific sanction would not completely overwhelm North Korea, it may have become a threat to Kim Jong-un's power by halting economic growth. It is dangerous to his regime.
English word Geezer means older, stubborn, and non-standardized person. They try to demolish or break demons in their perpetrators. Today, the geezer in the global stage has become the head of the world's largest economy. You know him as President Donald Trump. The Trump, in spite of changing the order of today's world as Putin, Erdogan, and Duterte, is trying to demolish the demilitarization of his country, but it is unlikely that the U.S Constitution and the state system would be bothered. However, the new policy towards North Korea shed some light. The U.S policy towards Korea has been constantly changing since the Korean war. The Democrats had a better position, but the Republicans did not have a stronger affection and saw them as threats. It was Geezerman's big shot. What will happen next cannot be predicted today, and that may just be even worse.
Because of the ban, the food norms have been diminished in the North. They are people who have overcome any disaster. In the late twentieth century, reports indicate that 3 million people have died of hunger. The northern people have become quite different over the last twenty years. A temporary free trial of the free trade zone, the liberalization, the markets where individuals could trade, allowed certain people to trade to China and sent laborers to many countries. The state-owned enterprises have managed to spend their own income for themselves. As a result, corruption is growing rapidly. Some researches show that about 200,000 people have the highest level of payment. A few years ago, sources reported that women were mostly protesters when they were forced to squeeze the money into foreign currencies. This is not the case in the history of North Korea. People who have something to lose can only resist.
The proof that leaders of North knew that they cannot withstand the severe sanction is a promise to stop the nuclear program. But this is not an easy task. Restricting the most severe bans in the last two years to stay unthreatened.
In a meeting with Kim in Hanoi, people said they would soon become a developed country as Vietnam seemed like a humiliation. There is no way to become Vietnamese as a Korean peninsula. If the North has completely abolished the nuclear weaponry, Americans will demand a human right for the next round. The North knows it all too well. They will not allow the example of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi to happen again. There are 200,000 capable people and 2500 generals working in armaments. Will they allow North Korea to liberalize 200,000 political prisoners? In addition to the 200,000 people who have today's rich capital, the use of mobile phones, the more information citizens have, and the possibilities for organizing are also a threat to Kim Jong-un.